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Öğe Analysis of the seeds of the debt crisis in Europe(Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2017) Yener, Haluk; Stengos, Thanasis; Yazgan, M. EgeThis paper presents an analysis of the seeds of the recent debt crisis that occurred in the Eurozone area using a variant of Fleming and Stein [2004. Stochastic Optimal Control, International Finance and Debt. Journal of Banking and Finance, 28: 979-996] model. This model has two risk drivers arising from uncertainties in the return on capital and the effective rate of return on net foreign assets. Given the risk drivers, we model the net worth value process of an economy under a stochastic setting and show that opening to the rest of the world by pursuing the growth maximizing leverage strategy is better than remaining closed, as that strategy enhances the growth of the net worth process. Second, we provide an extra condition to show when the excessive leverage poses a threat to the sustainable growth of an economy. In this way, we improve the model introduced by Fleming and Stein as a signal of possible debt crises. Finally, we conduct an econometric analysis for the group of countries considered under this study, and show that there is a long-run relationship between the capital stock and the total external debt justifying the use of the structural model we employ.Öğe Application of wavelet decomposition in time-series forecasting(Elsevier Science Sa, 2017) Zhang, Keyi; Gencay, Ramazan; Yazgan, M. EgeObserved time series data can exhibit different components, such as trends, seasonality, and jumps, which are characterized by different coefficients in their respective data generating processes. Therefore, fitting a given time series model to aggregated data can be time consuming and may lead to a loss of forecasting accuracy. In this paper, coefficients for variable components in estimations are generated based on wavelet-based multiresolution analyses. Thus, the accuracy of forecasts based on aggregate data should be improved because the constraint of equality among the model coefficients for all data components is relaxed. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.Öğe Currency substitution, policy rule and pass-through: evidence from Turkey(Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2010) Yazgan, M. Ege; Zer-Toker, IlknurIn this article we analyse empirically currency substitution and exchange rate pass-through in the Turkish Economy, where their ongoing presence could undermine the implementation of a successful monetary policy, especially in a flexible exchange rate regime. Even though a considerable time has passed after the implementation of a flexible exchange rate regime in Turkey, by using Vector Error Correction model for the period from 1987 to 2004, we find that the currency substitution and exchange rate pass-through still have importance in the Turkish Economy and the monetary policy stance has been considerably strong, possibly, as a response of ongoing presence of them. If this is the case, to avoid the undesired consequences of this strong monetary policy, Turkey should consider some policy measures to reduce the degree of pass-through and currency substitution.Öğe Detecting Convergence Clubs(Cambridge University Press, 2020-04-01) Beylunioğlu, Fuat Can; Yazgan, M. EgeThe convergence hypothesis, which is developed in the context of growth economics, asserts that the income differences across countries are transitory, and developing countries will eventually attain the level of income of developed ones. On the other hand, convergence clubs hypothesis claim that the convergence can only be realized across groups of countries that share some common characteristics. In this study, we propose a new method to find convergence clubs that combines a pairwise method of testing convergence with maximum clique and maximal clique algorithms. Unlike many of those already developed in the literature, this new method aims to find convergence clubs endogenously without depending on a-priori classifications. In a Monte Carlo simulation study, the success of the method in finding convergence clubs is compared with a similar algorithm. Simulation results indicated that the proposed method perform better than the compared algorithm in most cases. In addition to the Monte Carlo, a new empirical evidence on the existence of convergence clubs is presented in the context of real data applications.Öğe Effects of credit and debit cards on the currency demand(Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2009) Yilmazkuday, Hakan; Yazgan, M. EgeWe analyze the effects of credit and debit cards on the currency in circulation by using GMM estimation. Instead of using the data obtained by surveys, we use monthly data obtained by an interbank institution that keeps the statistics of all credit and debit cards usage of a small open economy, Turkey, for the period over 2002M1-2006M10. As expected from the theory, we find that an increase in the usage of credit and debit cards leads to a decrease in the currency demand. Moreover, the usage of the debit cards has a bigger effect on the money demand, compared to the usage of the credit cards. We also find that the effect of credit cards is mostly through purchases and the effect of debit cards is mostly through withdrawalsÖğe Exchange rate pass-through in Turkish export and import prices(Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2009) Tekin, R. Baris; Yazgan, M. EgeThis article examines exchange rate pass-through into prices of internationally traded goods in the case of a small emerging open market economy such as Turkey. In this study, we provide empirical evidence on complete pass-through in export prices in Turkey using aggregate data on the manufacturing sector. Our data do not however support complete pass-through in import prices in Turkey. This contradicts with the findings of the existent literature, which typically concludes that the degree of pass-through in import prices is higher than the one of export prices. This can be interpreted as a result of competition between import and import substituting industries where importers fall short of competing successfully with import substituting sectors. Although Turkish importers can be responsive to exchange rate changes to a certain degree in the short-run, in the long-run, they seem to lose their market power perhaps as a result of swift competition. A complete exchange rate pass-through to export prices in Turkey implies that the Turkish manufacturing export sector has the competitive strength to transmit exchange rate movements into their prices.Öğe Exchange rates and firm survival: An examination with Turkish firm-level data(Elsevier Science Bv, 2016) Toraganli, Nazli; Yazgan, M. EgeMicro-level empirical research has begun to obtain important results on the effects of currency variations on firms' survival. The literature has, however, lacked a detailed analysis of the effects of exchange rates on firms' survival behavior in emerging markets due to a scarcity of firm-level information. Using a firm-level dataset, we investigate the impact of currency appreciation on the survival behavior of Turkish firms in the manufacturing industries for 2002-2009. Our results suggest that real exchange rate appreciation decreases the probability of survival in the manufacturing industries. We also find that high-productivity firms have a higher probability of survival than low productivity firms following an appreciation of the exchange rate. Our findings indicate that the negative effect of a 1% real appreciation of the domestic currency on the survival probability of a given firm ranges from 4.5 to 9%, providing evidence for the vulnerability of developing countries to exchange rate movements. This evidence indicates that, especially for emerging market economies, economic events and policies leading to an appreciation in the domestic currency should be managed cautiously. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.Öğe Identification of common factors in panel data growth model(Elsevier Science Sa, 2018) Deniz, Pinar; Stengos, Thanasis; Yazgan, M. EgeCross sectional dependence may lead to inconsistent and inefficient estimators and as such misleading inferences when standard panel data techniques such as fixed/random effects are employed. Pesaran (2006) suggests incorporating cross sectional averages in panel data models as approximates of unobserved common factor(s) to deal with cross sectional dependence. In the context of a standard panel growth model we investigate whether these unobserved common factors can be identified and we find that institutional variables and life expectancy are able to adequately identify them. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.Öğe Is forecasting inflation easier under inflation targeting?(Physica-Verlag Gmbh & Co, 2015) Ozkan, Harun; Yazgan, M. EgeThis paper investigates whether monetary-policy regime changes affect the success of forecasting inflation. The forecasting performances of some linear and nonlinear univariate models are analyzed for 14 different countries that have adopted inflation-targeting (IT) monetary regimes at some point in their economic history. The results show that forecasting performance is generally superior under an IT monetary regime compared to nonIT (NIT) periods. In more than half of the countries covered in this study, superior forecasting accuracy can be achieved in IT periods regardless of the model used. In contrast, among most of the remaining countries, the results remain ambiguous, and the evidence on the superiority of NIT is limited to very few countries.Öğe Measuring Human Development in the MENA Region(Routledge, 2015-11-02) Yazgan, M. EgeWe aim to assess welfare improvements in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region using the Human Development Index (HDI). We obtain weighting schemes that yield the best- and worst-case scenarios for measured human development, relying on consistent tests for stochastic dominance efficiency (SDE), with the official equally weighted HDI taken as a benchmark. In the best-case scenario index, life expectancy and GDP indexes receive the highest weights for the 1975-2005 period, while the education index is the dominant contributor to the worst-case scenario in the same period. In addition, we observe a relative change in the best- and worst-case scenarios between two fifteen-year periods. The GDP index is the main contributor to the best-case scenario between 1975 and 1990, whereas the education index is the main contributor to the worst-case scenario during that period. Life expectancy is the main contributor to the best-case scenario in the 1990-2005 period, while the GDP and education indexes are the primary contributors to the worst-case scenario during that period. © Copyright © Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.Öğe MENA Economies: Reforms, Risk, and Development(Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2015) Yazgan, M. Ege[Abstract Not Available]Öğe Okun's convergence within the US(Springer Heidelberg, 2009) Yazgan, M. Ege; Yilmazkuday, HakanThis paper analyzes Okun's law for the states of the US over the period 1978-2002. By using Geographically Weighted Regression, possible geographical interactions across the analyzed states are taken into account. There is evidence of time-varying Okun's coefficients in each state. Moreover, the empirical results are in favor of a convergence across the states in terms of Okun's coefficients, thus of the phrase, Okun's convergence. Finally, possible stability clubs for Okun's coefficients are also investigated, and it is found that Okun's clusters are also mostly geographical.Öğe Persistence in convergence(Cambridge University Press, 2014-06) Yazgan, M. EgeIn this paper, we examine the convergence hypothesis using a long memory framework that allows for structural breaks and does not rely on a benchmark country. We find that even though the long memory framework of analysis is much richer than the simple I(1)/I(0) alternative, a simple absolute divergence and rapid convergence dichotomy produced by the latter is sufficient to capture the behavior of the gaps in per capita GDP levels and growth rates results respectively. This is in contrast to the findings of Dufrénot, Mignon, and Naccache [The Slow Convergence of Per Capita Income between the Developing Countries: Growth Resistance and Sometimes Growth Tragedy. Discussion paper, University of Nottingham (2009)], who found strong evidence of long memory for output gaps. The speed of convergence as captured by the estimated long memory parameter d, is explained by differences in physical and human capital as well as fiscal discipline characteristics of economic policies pursued by different countries. Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2013.Öğe PERSISTENCE IN CONVERGENCE AND CLUB FORMATION(Wiley, 2018) Stengos, Thanasis; Yazgan, M. Ege; Ozkan, HarunIn this paper, we examine the convergence hypothesis using a long memory framework that allows for structural breaks and does not rely on a benchmark country using both univariate and multivariate estimates of the long memory parameter d. Using per capita GDP gaps, we confirm the findings of non-stationarity and long memory behavior that have been found previously in the literature using univariate tests. However, the support for these findings is much weaker when using a multivariate framework, in which case we find more evidence of stationary behavior. Based on these results, we also investigate club formation, something that would suggest the presence of conditional convergence. We describe a club formation methodology using the sequential testing criteria that we have employed in our analysis as the basis for forming clusters or clubs of countries with similar convergence characteristics.Öğe Persistence in real exchange rate convergence(Walter de Gruyter GmbH, 2014-02) Yazgan, M. EgeIn this paper we use a long memory framework to examine the validity of the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) hypothesis using both monthly and quarterly data for a panel of 47 countries over a 50 year period (1957-2009). The analysis focuses on the long memory parameter d that allows us to obtain different convergence classifications depending on its value. Our analysis allows for the presence of smooth structural breaks and it does not rely on the use of a benchmark. Overall the evidence strongly points to the presence of a long memory process, where 0.5 < d < 1. The implication of our results is that we find long memory mean reverting convergence, something that is also consistent with Pesaran, M. H., R. P. Smith, T. Yamagata, and L. Hvozdyk. 2009. "Pairwise Tests of Purchasing Power Parity." Econometric Reviews 28: 495-521. In explaining the speed of convergence as captured by the estimated long memory parameter d we find impediments to trade such as distance between neighboring countries and sticky prices to be mainly responsible for the slow adjustment of real exchange rates to PPP rather than nominal rates for all country groups but Asia, where the opposite is true.Öğe Probability Forecasts of Macroaggregates in the Turkish Economy(Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2014) Kaya, Huseyin; Yazgan, M. EgeWe provide probability forecasts of key Turkish macroeconomic variables such as inflation and output growth. The probability forecasts are derived from a core vector error correction model of the Turkish economy and its several variants. We use model and window averaging to address uncertainties arising from estimated models and possible structural breaks. The performances of the different models and their combinations are evaluated using relevant forecast accuracy tests in different pseudo out-of-sample settings. The results indicate that successful directional forecasts can be obtained for output growth and inflation. Averaging over both the models and the estimation windows improves the level of accuracy of the forecasts.Öğe Real Exchange Rates and the Balance of Trade: Does the J-curve Effect Really Hold?(Springer, 2019) Yazgan, M. Ege; Ozturk, Serda SelinIn this paper, we re-examine the relationship between trade flows, real effective exchange rates, and incomes by using the bilateral trade flows of 33 countries that form more than two-thirds of total world trade. For each country, we consider the bilateral trade flows of the country under consideration vis-a-vis all other countries. The analysis reveals the fact that for most of the countries, a real depreciation of the home currency has favorable effects on the home country's trade balance in the long run. This long-run effect manifests itself in the short run for a small number of countries, indicating the fact that satisfying the Marshall-Lerner condition in the short run is more difficult. However, there is no evidence for the J-curve phenomenon, which suggests an initial deterioration in the trade balance in the short run following a depreciation.Öğe Regime switching with structural breaks in output convergence(Walter De Gruyter Gmbh, 2018) Beylunioglu, Fuat C.; Stengos, Thanasis; Yazgan, M. EgeIn this paper, we examine empirically GDP per capita convergence using an approach that explicitly allows for regime switching in the long memory parameter d within the context of a Markov Switching (MS)-ARFIMA framework. As existing methods used in the estimation of standard MS models, such as the EM algorithm are no longer appropriate, we will make use of the Viterbi algorithm to estimate the long memory MS model used by Tsay and Hardle (Tsay, W.-J., and W. K. Hardle. 2009. A Generalized Arfima Process with Markov-Switching Fractional Differencing Parameter. Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation 79: 731-745.). We will classify the output gap series into two regimes, a high d and a low d regime, where a high d close to unity would imply persistence and lack of convergence. By examining the path of d parameter over time which enables us to observe non-convergent behavior in more detail, we find that converging behavior is diminishing over time and divergence is the dominant force.Öğe Revisiting the link between output growth and volatility: panel GARCH analysis(Physica-Verlag Gmbh & Co, 2021) Deniz, Pinar; Stengos, Thanasis; Yazgan, M. EgeThis paper explores the link between output growth and volatility using several macroeconomic variables for a panel of countries for the period of 1971-2014. Using an augmented panel GARCH-M model, we allow for the first time in the literature for independent variables to be part of the conditional equations. The paper is also novel in terms of encompassing an extensive number of countries and country groups. The relationship between output growth and volatility is observed to vary between different country groups. Empirical findings regarding the effect of exogeneous variables suggest that trade openness contributes to economic growth and institutional quality lowers economic volatility.Öğe SEARCHING FOR THE OPTIMAL LEVEL: INFLATION AND PRICE VARIABILITY IN TURKEY(World Scientific Publ Co Pte Ltd, 2023) Karahan, Hatice; Yazgan, M. EgeThis paper explores the relationship between inflation and relative price variability (RPV) in Turkey for the period 2004-2017 to shed further light on the issue with relatively recent data. For this purpose, we use monthly price data for 12 main item groups and 414 specific items thereof. Analyses show that RPV for the period of interest exhibits large fluctuations, being particularly salient in the categories of communications and food. Regarding the underlying functional form, semi-parametric estimation results indicate a U-shaped relationship between inflation and RPV, where the latter reaches its minimum at an inflation level close to 8%.
