Probability Forecasts of Macroaggregates in the Turkish Economy
Küçük Resim Yok
Tarih
2014
Yazarlar
Dergi Başlığı
Dergi ISSN
Cilt Başlığı
Yayıncı
Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd
Erişim Hakkı
info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess
Özet
We provide probability forecasts of key Turkish macroeconomic variables such as inflation and output growth. The probability forecasts are derived from a core vector error correction model of the Turkish economy and its several variants. We use model and window averaging to address uncertainties arising from estimated models and possible structural breaks. The performances of the different models and their combinations are evaluated using relevant forecast accuracy tests in different pseudo out-of-sample settings. The results indicate that successful directional forecasts can be obtained for output growth and inflation. Averaging over both the models and the estimation windows improves the level of accuracy of the forecasts.
Açıklama
SWUFE International Workshop on Applied Microeconomics -- JUN 08-09, 2012 -- Chengdu, PEOPLES R CHINA
Anahtar Kelimeler
Forecast Combinations, Forecasting And Structural Breaks, Probability Forecasts, Turkish Economy, Combination, Tests
Kaynak
Emerging Markets Finance and Trade
WoS Q Değeri
N/A
Scopus Q Değeri
Q1
Cilt
50
Sayı
2
