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    An analysis of regime shifts in the Turkish economy
    (Elsevier, 2008) Yilmazkuday, Hakan; Akay, Koray
    We use a time-varying dynamic factor model with regime switching to construct and estimate the leading indicators of the currency crises in Turkey. After that, we analyze the business cycles of the Turkish economy, by using a three-state univariate Markov-switching model. Both models capture the observed dynamics of the Turkish economy over the period 1987-2002. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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    Effects of credit and debit cards on the currency demand
    (Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2009) Yilmazkuday, Hakan; Yazgan, M. Ege
    We analyze the effects of credit and debit cards on the currency in circulation by using GMM estimation. Instead of using the data obtained by surveys, we use monthly data obtained by an interbank institution that keeps the statistics of all credit and debit cards usage of a small open economy, Turkey, for the period over 2002M1-2006M10. As expected from the theory, we find that an increase in the usage of credit and debit cards leads to a decrease in the currency demand. Moreover, the usage of the debit cards has a bigger effect on the money demand, compared to the usage of the credit cards. We also find that the effect of credit cards is mostly through purchases and the effect of debit cards is mostly through withdrawals
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    Okun's convergence within the US
    (Springer Heidelberg, 2009) Yazgan, M. Ege; Yilmazkuday, Hakan
    This paper analyzes Okun's law for the states of the US over the period 1978-2002. By using Geographically Weighted Regression, possible geographical interactions across the analyzed states are taken into account. There is evidence of time-varying Okun's coefficients in each state. Moreover, the empirical results are in favor of a convergence across the states in terms of Okun's coefficients, thus of the phrase, Okun's convergence. Finally, possible stability clubs for Okun's coefficients are also investigated, and it is found that Okun's clusters are also mostly geographical.