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Construction GDP and total GDP in Turkey: before&after the global crisis analysis
(İstanbul Bilgi Üniversitesi, 2020) Ulukartal, Esen Koray; Öztürk, Serda Selin
ABSTRACT: In this study, the interactions between the share of construction sector in Turkey’s GDP, Turkish economic growth, and key expressive factors such as real effective exchange rates, commercial loan rates and consumer price index are examined. The Spillover analysis approach developed by Diebold and Yilmaz is utilized in the study. The period between the start of year 2003 and the end of year 2019 is examined. All data has been taken quarterly, and the mentioned time period has been split into two parts to examine the interactions in three sub-periods: Before the global financial crisis, after the global financial crisis, and during the whole period. It can be inferred from the study that the construction sector has been a major propelling force in Turkey’s economic growth in the period leading to the global financial crisis. However, as the crisis subsides, it is evident according to the Spillover analysis approach that the interaction reverses and Turkish economic growth fuels the growth of the construction sector in Turkey.