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    Has 'inflation targeting' increased the predictive power of term structure about future inflation: Evidence from Turkish experience?
    (2011) Kaya, H.; Yazgan, M.E.
    This article contributes to the vast literature on the predictive power of term structure on future inflation by focusing on an emerging market case: Turkey. The most important result emerging in our article is the following: Monetary policy change is an important determinant of the relationship between term structure and inflation to the extent that even the existence of the relationship critically depends on the nature of the monetary policy regime. In our case, the change in monetary policy is associated with the beginning of the implementation of an Inflation Targeting (IT) regime. While, before IT, the information in term structure does not provide any predictive power for future inflation; this phenomenon seems to be completely reversed after IT. Since the implementation of IT, the term structures of interest rates seem to have gained considerable forecasting power for future inflation. © 2011 Taylor & Francis.
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    Nowcasting Turkish Food Inflation Using Daily Online Prices
    (Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH, 2023) Soybilgen, B.; Yazgan, M.E.; Kaya, H.
    This study uses a sample of daily food prices scraped from retail chains’ websites for the period from July 2018 to December 2020, comprising over 5.9 million data points. Using these food prices, we construct 132 food price subindexes compatible with official data published by the Turkish Statistical Institute (Turkstat), which are published only once a month. We then use the online food price subindexes to calculate the primary food inflation rate. We find that changes in our online food price index and the Turkstat data are closely related. The daily online food price index is then used to nowcast official food and headline inflation. Our results show that the online index successfully nowcasts the official inflation rates, providing results considerably earlier than the official rate is announced. We also observe that the implementation of the first coronavirus restrictions in Turkey in early 2020 caused online food prices to jump, whereas official food prices did not experience the same spike. © 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.