Identifying leading indicators of real activity and inflation for Turkey, 1988-2010: A pseudo out-of-sample forecasting approach
Küçük Resim Yok
Tarih
2013
Yazarlar
Dergi Başlığı
Dergi ISSN
Cilt Başlığı
Yayıncı
Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)
Erişim Hakkı
info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess
Özet
This paper develops a set of leading indicators for industrial production growth and changes in consumer price inflation by accounting for changes in the policy regime that have occurred for the Turkish economy over the sample period 1988-2010. The choice of indicators is based on a pseudo out-of-sample forecasting exercise that is implemented by Leigh and Rossi (2002), and Stock and Watson (2003), amongst others. Our findings provide evidence on the factors determining changes in real activity and inflation over an extended sample period that encompasses episodes of volatile inflation and output growth as well as the recent experience of disinflation and normalisation for the Turkish economy. © OECD 2013.
Açıklama
Anahtar Kelimeler
Combination Forecasts, Inflation, Inflation Targeting, Leading İndicators, Out-Of-Sample Forecasting, Real Activity, Turkey
Kaynak
OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis
WoS Q Değeri
Scopus Q Değeri
N/A
Cilt
2013
Sayı
2
