Nowcasting the New Turkish GDP
Küçük Resim Yok
Tarih
2018
Yazarlar
Dergi Başlığı
Dergi ISSN
Cilt Başlığı
Yayıncı
Economics Bulletin
Erişim Hakkı
info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess
Özet
In this study, we predict year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter Turkish GDP growth rates between 2012:Q1 and 2016:Q4 with a medium-scale dataset. Our proposed model outperforms both the competing dynamic factor model (DFM) and univariate benchmark models. Our results suggest that in nowcasting current GDP, all relevant information is released within the contemporaneous quarter; hence, no predictive power is added afterwards. Moreover, we show that the inclusion of construction/ service sector variables and credit variables improves the prediction accuracy of the DFM.
Açıklama
Anahtar Kelimeler
Kaynak
Economics Bulletin
WoS Q Değeri
N/A
Scopus Q Değeri
Q3
Cilt
38
Sayı
2
