Forecasting annual natural gas consumption using socio-economic indicators for making future policies

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dc.authoridGünay, M. Erdem/0000-0003-1282-718X|Sen, Doruk/0000-0003-3353-5952
dc.authorwosidGünay, M. Erdem/I-1564-2019
dc.authorwosidSen, Doruk/D-4547-2016
dc.contributor.authorSen, Doruk
dc.contributor.authorGunay, M. Erdem
dc.contributor.authorTunc, K. M. Murat
dc.date.accessioned2024-07-18T20:42:35Z
dc.date.available2024-07-18T20:42:35Z
dc.date.issued2019
dc.departmentİstanbul Bilgi Üniversitesien_US
dc.description.abstractNatural gas is a foreign-dependent source of energy in many countries and a rapid increase of its consumption is mainly associated with the increase of living standards and needs. In this work, Turkey was taken as a case study with high degree of foreign dependence of energy, and the future natural gas consumption was predicted by several different multiple regression models using socio-economic indicators as the descriptor variables. Among these, gross domestic product and inflation rate were found to be the only significant ones for this prediction. Next, three different projections for the future values of the significant descriptor variables were tested, and the natural gas consumption was predicted to rise gradually in the range 1.3 +/- 0.2 billion m(3) per year reaching to a consumption of 64.0 +/- 3.5 billion m(3) in the year 2025. It was then discussed that this additional natural gas can be compensated by utilizing local lignite sources or by starting a nuclear energy program although these two methods to reduce the future natural gas consumption have some conflictions with the general European energy matrix and environmental politics. Thus, it was concluded that resuming the wind and solar-based electricity generation programs can be considered as a more reasonable option. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.energy.2019.02.130
dc.identifier.endpage1118en_US
dc.identifier.issn0360-5442
dc.identifier.issn1873-6785
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85062214427en_US
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ1en_US
dc.identifier.startpage1106en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2019.02.130
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/11411/7351
dc.identifier.volume173en_US
dc.identifier.wosWOS:000464301000088en_US
dc.identifier.wosqualityQ1en_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Scienceen_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopusen_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherPergamon-Elsevier Science Ltden_US
dc.relation.ispartofEnergyen_US
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanıen_US
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccessen_US
dc.subjectNatural Gas Consumptionen_US
dc.subjectPredictionen_US
dc.subjectTurkish Scenarioen_US
dc.subjectGross Domestic Producten_US
dc.subjectMultiple Regressionen_US
dc.subjectLigniteen_US
dc.subjectNuclear Poweren_US
dc.subjectElectricity Demanden_US
dc.subjectEnergy-Consumptionen_US
dc.subjectStatistical-Modelen_US
dc.subjectNeural-Networksen_US
dc.subjectNuclear-Poweren_US
dc.subjectPredictionen_US
dc.subjectCombinationen_US
dc.subjectSupporten_US
dc.subjectSystemen_US
dc.titleForecasting annual natural gas consumption using socio-economic indicators for making future policies
dc.typeArticle

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