A Survey-Based Analysis of the Housing Market in an Emerging Economy: The Turkish Case

Abstract

The authors analyze the dynamics of the housing market in Turkey from both the supply and the demand sides using cointegration analysis. Using a monthly survey, a buying index was created to measure housing demand. Construction permit data are used to measure the housing supply. Other variables include nominal interest rates, home prices, income, and construction costs. A vector error correction analysis reveals that shocks to any of the aforementioned variables have a predictable and permanent impact on the housing market and that interest rates play the most important role. The financial results presented here have important implications for the active intervention policies of the Central Bank of Turkey. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first survey-based paper to simultaneously analyze both the demand and the supply sides of the housing market in Turkey.