Evaluating nowcasts of bridge equations with advanced combination schemes for the Turkish unemployment rate

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dc.authorwosidYazgan, Ege/GPG-1135-2022
dc.contributor.authorSoybilgen, Baris
dc.contributor.authorYazgan, Ege
dc.date.accessioned2024-07-18T20:42:33Z
dc.date.available2024-07-18T20:42:33Z
dc.date.issued2018
dc.departmentİstanbul Bilgi Üniversitesien_US
dc.description.abstractThe paper analyzes the point and density predictive performance of alternative nowcast combination schemes in the context of bridge equations for the Turkish unemployment rate. Furthermore, we also nowcast the unemployment rate by using dynamic factor models (DFMs). Our results indicate that most of the sophisticated forecast combination methods have better predictive accuracy than the simple forecast combinations, especially in higher forecast horizons, which constitutes a case for the nowcast combination puzzle. Furthermore, most of bridge equations with the advanced forecast combination schemes usually outperform DFMs which are assumed to be superior to the bridge equations. This latter result indicates that bridge equations augmented by advanced forecast combination schemes may be a viable alternative to the DFM. Finally, we show that real and labor variables play the most important role for nowcasting the Turkish unemployment rate, whereas financial variables and surveys do not seem to be beneficial. Overall, our results indicate that advanced combination schemes can increase the performance of nowcasting models.en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.econmod.2018.01.009
dc.identifier.endpage108en_US
dc.identifier.issn0264-9993
dc.identifier.issn1873-6122
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85044523178en_US
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ1en_US
dc.identifier.startpage99en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2018.01.009
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/11411/7335
dc.identifier.volume72en_US
dc.identifier.wosWOS:000434744600009en_US
dc.identifier.wosqualityQ2en_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Scienceen_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopusen_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherElsevier Science Bven_US
dc.relation.ispartofEconomic Modellingen_US
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanıen_US
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccessen_US
dc.subjectNowcastingen_US
dc.subjectUnemploymenten_US
dc.subjectDynamic Factor Modelen_US
dc.subjectForecast Combinationen_US
dc.subjectDensity Nowcastsen_US
dc.subjectBridge Equationsen_US
dc.subjectEuro-Area Gdpen_US
dc.subjectShort-Term Forecastsen_US
dc.subjectReal-Time Forecastsen_US
dc.subjectOutput Growthen_US
dc.subjectFactor Modelsen_US
dc.subjectMacroeconomic Dataen_US
dc.subjectFrequency Dataen_US
dc.subjectData Seten_US
dc.subjectInflationen_US
dc.subjectPerformanceen_US
dc.titleEvaluating nowcasts of bridge equations with advanced combination schemes for the Turkish unemployment rateen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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