Big data financial transactions and GDP nowcasting: The case of Turkey

Basit Öğe Kaydı
dc.WoS.categoriesEconomics Managementen_US
dc.authorid0000-0003-1412-4488en_US
dc.contributor.authorBarlas, Ali
dc.contributor.authorMert, Seda Güler
dc.contributor.authorİsa, Berk Orkun
dc.contributor.authorOrtiz, Alvaro
dc.contributor.authorRodrigo, Tomasa
dc.contributor.authorSoybilgen, Barış
dc.contributor.authorYazgan, Ege
dc.date.accessioned2024-04-05T09:31:53Z
dc.date.available2024-04-05T09:31:53Z
dc.date.issued2023-09-29
dc.description.abstractWe use aggregated information from individual-to-firm and firm-to-firm transactions from the Garanti BBVA Bank to simulate domestic private demand and estimate aggregate consumption and investment for Turkey's quarterly national accounts in real time. We show that these big data variables successfully nowcast official consumption and investment flows. To further validate the usefulness of these indicators, we include both indicators among others which are generally used in gross domestic product (GDP) nowcasting and evaluate their contribution to nowcasting power of Turkish GDP by combining both linear and nonlinear models. The results are successful and confirm the usefulness of consumption and investment banking transactions for nowcasting purposes. These big data are valuable, especially at the beginning of the nowcasting process, when the traditional hard data are scarce. Accordingly, this information is especially relevant for countries with longer statistical release lags, such as emerging markets.en_US
dc.fullTextLevelFull Texten_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1002/for.3032en_US
dc.identifier.issn1099-131X
dc.identifier.issn0277-6693
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85171548385en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/11411/5252
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1002/for.3032
dc.identifier.wosWOS:001066954100001en_US
dc.identifier.wosqualityQ2en_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Scienceen_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopusen_US
dc.issue2en_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.nationalInternationalen_US
dc.numberofauthors5en_US
dc.pages227-248en_US
dc.publisherWILEYen_US
dc.relation.ecYesen_US
dc.relation.ispartofJOURNAL OF FORECASTINGen_US
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanıen_US
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessen_US
dc.subjectBayesian vector autoregressive modelen_US
dc.subjectbig dataen_US
dc.subjectdynamic factor modelen_US
dc.subjectmachine learningen_US
dc.subjectnowcastingen_US
dc.titleBig data financial transactions and GDP nowcasting: The case of Turkeyen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.volume43en_US

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