Yazar "Soybilgen, B." seçeneğine göre listele

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    Nowcasting Turkish Food Inflation Using Daily Online Prices
    (Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH, 2023) Soybilgen, B.; Yazgan, M.E.; Kaya, H.
    This study uses a sample of daily food prices scraped from retail chains’ websites for the period from July 2018 to December 2020, comprising over 5.9 million data points. Using these food prices, we construct 132 food price subindexes compatible with official data published by the Turkish Statistical Institute (Turkstat), which are published only once a month. We then use the online food price subindexes to calculate the primary food inflation rate. We find that changes in our online food price index and the Turkstat data are closely related. The daily online food price index is then used to nowcast official food and headline inflation. Our results show that the online index successfully nowcasts the official inflation rates, providing results considerably earlier than the official rate is announced. We also observe that the implementation of the first coronavirus restrictions in Turkey in early 2020 caused online food prices to jump, whereas official food prices did not experience the same spike. © 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.
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    Taylor rule for Turkey under multiple structural breaks: Estimating the forward-looking taylor rule for Turkey under multiple structural breaks
    (Peter Lang AG, 2019) Soybilgen, B.; Eroğlu, B.A.; Yener, H.
    We estimate a forward-looking Taylor rule for Turkey covering both implicit and explicit inflation-targeting periods. In this analysis, we also consider the presence of structural breaks in the policy coefficients. Even though the Turkish economy has been undergoing several structural changes since 2002, the previous studies that estimate the monetary policy rule for Turkey disregard structural breaks, while fitting a policy reaction function. In this study, we examine a Taylor rule for Turkey using a two-stage least square regression that is coupled with the analysis of multiple structural breaks with unknown dates. By using this methodology, we show that the monetary policy function of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey exhibits four different periods. This result demonstrates that it is crucial to take account of structural breaks, while estimating monetary policy rules. © Peter Lang AG 2019.