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    Empirical investigation of party preferences and economic voting in Turkey
    (Wiley, 2005) Baslevent, C; Kirmanoglu, H; Senatalar, B
    This article examines the factors that shape party preferences in Turkey by estimating an individual vote intention function that includes both economic and non-economic factors. The economic variables can be used to test the familiar hypotheses of economic voting theory - whether individuals vote retrospectively and/or prospectively, and whether they are sociotropic and/or egotropic. The non-economic factors include sociodemographic characteristics as well as identity and issue variables likely to be good predictors of party choice. The analysis focuses on comparing the characteristics of those who intend to vote for the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) with those of other parties. According to multinomial logit estimates, young people, especially males, constitute the electoral base for the AKP. Those who have been affected adversely by recent economic developments, as well as those who are against Turkey's accession to the European Union are also more likely to vote for the AKP. The empirical work also provides evidence in support of economic voting hypotheses.
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    Voter profiles and fragmentation in the Turkish party system
    (Sage Publications Ltd, 2004) Baslevent, C; Kirmanoglu, H; Senatalar, B
    Based on the multinomial logit estimates of an individual vote intention function, we perform restriction tests to make pairwise comparisons of the voter profiles of the major political parties in Turkey. The economic variables in the model are items that represent the well known hypotheses of economic voting theory, i.e. whether individuals vote retrospectively and/or prospectively, and whether they are sociotropic and/or pocketbook. The non-economic factors include socio-demographic characteristics as well as issues and identity variables that are likely to be good predictors of the party choice. In many cases, restriction tests provide evidence refuting the general view that the Turkish party system is artificially fragmented.