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Öğe A COMPARISON OF FINANCIAL ROBUSTNESS IN THE UNITED STATES AND TURKEY DURING 2007-2010(Emerald Group Publishing Ltd, 2011) Bennett, Paul; Erdogan, OralThis study aims to explain that more conservative and supervised but supported banking system can be an advantage during the crises periods. We use the US banking system as the origin of the recent collapse, and the Turkish banking as the more profitable one during the recent crisis years. We have found evidence that, in the context of the specific type of externally initiated yet spreading crisis of confidence and funding that affected world institutions, the structure of the Turkish banks actually turned out to protect the Turkish financial system.Öğe Dynamics of the co-movement between stock and maritime markets(Elsevier Science Bv, 2013) Erdogan, Oral; Tata, Kenan; Karahasan, B. Can; Sengoz, M. HakanThis study demonstrates the existence of economically significant information spillovers between stock markets and markets for shipping freight by sea. Using multivariate correlation models on the returns of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Baltic Dry Index (BM), we find mutual feedback between the two markets, which becomes stronger during the periods of financial turmoil. Results also suggest that the extent of information spillover between the markets varies over time, depending on market-specific conditions. We conclude that, being an indispensable factor for price discovery, such a relationship provides a link between two markets that are otherwise rather distinct with respect to the assessment of available information and real activity. (C) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.Öğe The news of no news in stock markets(Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2009) Erdogan, Oral; Yezegel, Ari[Abstract Not Available]Öğe Recession Prediction Using Yield Curve and Stock Market Liquidity Deviation Measures(Oxford Univ Press, 2015) Erdogan, Oral; Bennett, Paul; Ozyildirim, CenktanThis article extends the benchmark Estrella and Hardouvelis term spread approach to recession forecasting by including the stock market macro liquidity deviation factor. We use a probit framework to predict recessions, as defined by the NBER between 1959Q1 and 2011Q4. We find that combining the yield curve parameter with the stock market liquidity deviation significantly improves our ability to predict the onset of a US recession, based both on in-sample and out-of-sample tests. In addition, changes in stock market depth further increase the accuracy of the model. We suggest that economic forecasters and those charged with conducting economic stabilization policy more generally would benefit from monitoring not only the yield curve but also stock market depth and liquidity, and their deviation from one another.
