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Öğe Central Bank Independence and Inflation Under Asymmetric Information: Delegation vs. Seesaw Effects(Sciendo, 2024) Elgin, Ceyhun; Oztunali, OguzRecent empirical research finds little or mixed evidence in favour of a negative relationship between central bank independence and inflation. In this paper, we construct a theory where the relationship between inflation and central bank independence depends on the extent of informational asymmetry regarding the government's efficiency in its provision of public goods and also provide some empirical support for it. In the theoretical part of the paper, we introduce the degree of central bank independence as a fixed cost that is paid when the government (whose objective is to minimize output gap via inflation or costly fiscal expansion) rejects the monetary policy proposal of the central bank (which aims to minimize inflation) and determines both fiscal and monetary policies itself. Government efficiency in providing public goods, i.e. the cost of fiscal expansion, is the private information and the source of informational asymmetry in our model. In this setting, increasing the fixed cost of rejecting the central bank's offer creates two opposite effects on inflation: delegation effect and seesaw effect (since fiscal and monetary expansion are substitutes for the government, now it relies more on fiscal expansion). We show that while the magnitude of the delegation effect is equal to or higher than the seesaw effect, the magnitude of each effect depends on the current level of the fixed cost. If the current fixed cost is not high enough, then a small improvement in central bank independence creates a relatively smaller delegation effect compared to the case where fixed cost is high enough and both efficient and inefficient government types accept the offer.Öğe Determinants of the Informal Economy in MENA Economies(2018) Ateşağaoğlu, Orhan Erem; Öztunalı, Oğuz; Elgin, CeyhunUsing data from a panel of 23 Middle East and North African(MENA) economies over the years between 1999-2015, thispaper examines the determinants of the shadow economy inthis region. Specifically, we reexamine the economic and socialvariables used in the cross-country empirical literature on theshadow economy and compare them with those of the MENAeconomies to identify similarities and differences betweenMENA countries and the rest of the world. Moreover, wediscuss key implications of the shadow economy in this setting.Öğe Determinants of Ticket Prices in Turkish Aviation Industry(2017) Öztunalı, Oğuz; Ateşağaoğlu, Orhan Erem; Elgin, CeyhunIn this paper, we investigate the determinants of ticket prices in the Turkish aviation sector by mainly focusing on the role ofcompetition using both cross-sectional and panel data approaches. Our results indicate that while the main determinant of the cross-sectional variation in average ticket prices is the distance of route; the degree of competition, flight frequency and plane capacity havestatistically significant relationships with daily ticket prices alongside the distance. However, the set of determinants depend on the locationof flight destination. For routes with a domestic destination, our results indicate that price levels are negatively affected from the degree ofcompetition, exchange rate and crude oil price. On the other hand, ticket prices for routes with international destinations are negatively andsignificantly relate to flight frequency and plane capacity while the degree of competition does not exhibit a statistically significantrelationship.Öğe Determinants of ticket prices in Turkish aviation industry(Journal of Yasar University, 2017) Elgin, Ceyhun; Ateşağaoğlu, Orhan Erem; Öztunalı, OğuzÖzet: Bu makalede Türkiye’nin havacılık sektöründeki bilet fiyatlarının belirleyicileri, özellikle rekabet derecesinin potansiyel rolü üzerinde durularak hem çapraz kesit hem de panel veri yöntemleri ile incelenmektedir. Tüm örneklemle yapılan analizin sonucunda bilet fiyatlarının uçuş mesafesi ile pozitif, rekabet derecesi, uçuş sıklığı ve uçak kapasitesi ile negatif ve istatitiki olarak anlamlı ilişkiye sahip olduğunu göstermektedir. Analiz sonuçları ayrıca bilet fiyatlarının belirleyicilerinin varış yerinin konumuna bağlı olduğunu göstermektedir. Varış yerinin yurt içinde yer aldığı uçuş rotalarında bilet fiyatlarının kur seviyesi, ham petrol fiyatı ve rekabet derecesi ile negatif ve anlamlı ilişkiye sahip olmasına karşın, varış yerinin yurt dışında yer aldığı uçuşların bilet fiyatlarının rekabet derecesi ile anlamlı bir ilişkiye sahip olmadığı ve bu bilet fiyatlarnın ana belirliyicelerinin uçuş sıklığı ve uçak kapasitesi olduğu gözlemlenmiştir.Öğe Informality and structural transformation(CENTRAL BANK REPUBLIC TURKEY, 2017-12) Ateşağaoğlu, Orhan Erem; Bayram, Deniz; Elgin, CeyhunIn this paper, we investigate the evolution of the informal sector through structural transformation. We develop both a three-sector and a five-sector dynamic general equilibrium (DGE) model, which can simultaneously account for structural transformation between agriculture, industry and services, and between the informal and formal sectors. First, we incorporate the informal sector into an otherwise two-sector (agriculture and non agriculture) DGE model. Then, we augment this model and build a five-sector DGE model extending the non-agricultural sector into industry and services, to separately account for the evolution of informality in these two sectors. The calibrated model performs remarkably well in accounting for the evolution of the sectoral employment shares and the size of the informal sector. Finally, we use panel data econometric tools to investigate the empirical relationship between structural transformation and the informal sector and find a strong negative relationship between the size of non-agricultural sector and informality.Öğe Wage-led versus profit-led demand: A comprehensive empirical analysis(Wiley, 2020) Oyvat, Cem; Oztunali, Oguz; Elgin, CeyhunThis study investigates various economic factors' impact in determining the relationship between functional income distribution and aggregate demand from both a theoretical and an empirical viewpoint. We base our analysis on a demand-driven growth model for an open economy that allows for either profit-led or wage-led regimes. Our results strongly indicate that a higher level of trade openness is associated with a lower probability of being wage-led. We find evidence that lower wage inequality makes an economy more wage-led and that countries with a greater private credit-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio are more likely to be profit-led.
