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Öğe Dynamic lot sizing for a warm/cold process: Heuristics and insights(Elsevier Science BV, 2013-09) Toy, Ayhan Özgür; Berk, EmreWe consider the dynamic lot sizing problem for a warm/cold process where the process can be kept warm at a unit variable cost for the next period if more than a prespecified quantity has been produced. Exploiting the optimal production plan structures, we develop nine rule-based forward solution heuristics. Proposed heuristics are modified counterparts of the heuristics developed previously for the classical dynamic lot sizing problem. In a numerical study, we investigate the performance of the proposed heuristics and identify operating environment characteristics where each particular heuristic is the best or among the best. Moreover, for a warm/cold process setting, our numerical studies indicate that, when used on a rolling horizon basis, a heuristic may also perform better costwise than a solution obtained using a dynamic programming approach. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.Öğe On the Modeling of CO2 EUA and CER Prices of EU-ETS for the 2008-2012 Period(Wiley-Blackwell, 2016-07) Yenigün, Cemal Deniz; Gürler, Ülkü; Çağlar, Mine; Berk, EmreAbstract Increased consumption of fossil fuels in industrial production has led to a significant elevation in the emission of greenhouse gases and to global warming. The most effective international action against global warming is the Kyoto Protocol, which aims to reduce carbon emissions to desired levels in a certain time span. Carbon trading is one of the mechanisms used to achieve the desired reductions. One of the most important implications of carbon trading for industrial systems is the risk of uncertainty about the prices of carbon allowance permits traded in the carbon markets. In this paper, we consider stochastic and time series modeling of carbon market prices and provide estimates of the model parameters involved, based on the European Union emissions trading scheme carbon allowances data obtained for 2008-2012 period. In particular, we consider fractional Brownian motion and autoregressive moving average-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic modeling of the European Union emissions trading scheme data and provide comparisons with benchmark models. Our analysis reveals evidence for structural changes in the underlying models in the span of the years 2008-2012. Data-driven methods for identifying possible change-points in the underlying models are employed, and a detailed analysis is provided. Our analysis indicated change-points in the European Union Allowance (EUA) prices in the first half of 2009 and in the second half of 2011, whereas in the Certified Emissions Reduction (CER) prices three change-points have appeared, in the first half of 2009, the middle of 2011, and in the second half of 2012. These change-points seem to parallel the global economic indicators as well. Copyright (c) 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.