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Öğe Cross country stock market comovement: A macro perspective(Elsevier B.V., 2022-09) Ateşağaoğlu, Orhan Eremince the 1990s, there has been a simultaneous rise in cross-country stock market correlations and FDI positions. We establish an empirical relationship between these two, for pairs of developed economies that survives controlling for relevant factors. At firm level, we find that stock returns of multinationals that invest in technology capital are more correlated with world stock markets. Using a calibrated two-country asset pricing model with multinationals, we find that the increase in FDI accounts for one third of the rise in the observed stock market correlations. When allowing for increases in trade and portfolio diversification, we find that these two factors do not generate an increase in stock market correlations. © 2022 The Author(s)Öğe Determinants of the informal economy in MENA economies(Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 2018-06) Ateşağaoğlu, Orhan Erem; Öztunalı, OğuzABSTRACT: Using data from a panel of 23 Middle East and North African (MENA) economies over the years between 1999-2015, this paper examines the determinants of the shadow economy in this region. Specifically, we reexamine the economic and social variables used in the cross-country empirical literature on the shadow economy and compare them with those of the MENA economies to identify similarities and differences between MENA countries and the rest of the world. Moreover, we discuss key implications of the shadow economy in this setting.Öğe Determinants of the Informal Economy in MENA Economies(2018) Ateşağaoğlu, Orhan Erem; Öztunalı, Oğuz; Elgin, CeyhunUsing data from a panel of 23 Middle East and North African(MENA) economies over the years between 1999-2015, thispaper examines the determinants of the shadow economy inthis region. Specifically, we reexamine the economic and socialvariables used in the cross-country empirical literature on theshadow economy and compare them with those of the MENAeconomies to identify similarities and differences betweenMENA countries and the rest of the world. Moreover, wediscuss key implications of the shadow economy in this setting.Öğe Determinants of Ticket Prices in Turkish Aviation Industry(2017) Öztunalı, Oğuz; Ateşağaoğlu, Orhan Erem; Elgin, CeyhunIn this paper, we investigate the determinants of ticket prices in the Turkish aviation sector by mainly focusing on the role ofcompetition using both cross-sectional and panel data approaches. Our results indicate that while the main determinant of the cross-sectional variation in average ticket prices is the distance of route; the degree of competition, flight frequency and plane capacity havestatistically significant relationships with daily ticket prices alongside the distance. However, the set of determinants depend on the locationof flight destination. For routes with a domestic destination, our results indicate that price levels are negatively affected from the degree ofcompetition, exchange rate and crude oil price. On the other hand, ticket prices for routes with international destinations are negatively andsignificantly relate to flight frequency and plane capacity while the degree of competition does not exhibit a statistically significantrelationship.Öğe Determinants of ticket prices in Turkish aviation industry(Journal of Yasar University, 2017) Elgin, Ceyhun; Ateşağaoğlu, Orhan Erem; Öztunalı, OğuzÖzet: Bu makalede Türkiye’nin havacılık sektöründeki bilet fiyatlarının belirleyicileri, özellikle rekabet derecesinin potansiyel rolü üzerinde durularak hem çapraz kesit hem de panel veri yöntemleri ile incelenmektedir. Tüm örneklemle yapılan analizin sonucunda bilet fiyatlarının uçuş mesafesi ile pozitif, rekabet derecesi, uçuş sıklığı ve uçak kapasitesi ile negatif ve istatitiki olarak anlamlı ilişkiye sahip olduğunu göstermektedir. Analiz sonuçları ayrıca bilet fiyatlarının belirleyicilerinin varış yerinin konumuna bağlı olduğunu göstermektedir. Varış yerinin yurt içinde yer aldığı uçuş rotalarında bilet fiyatlarının kur seviyesi, ham petrol fiyatı ve rekabet derecesi ile negatif ve anlamlı ilişkiye sahip olmasına karşın, varış yerinin yurt dışında yer aldığı uçuşların bilet fiyatlarının rekabet derecesi ile anlamlı bir ilişkiye sahip olmadığı ve bu bilet fiyatlarnın ana belirliyicelerinin uçuş sıklığı ve uçak kapasitesi olduğu gözlemlenmiştir.Öğe Financing corporate tax cuts with shareholder taxes(John Wiley and Sons Ltd, 2022-01) Ateşağaoğlu, Orhan EremAbstract: We study the aggregate and distributional consequences of replacing corporate profit taxes with shareholder taxes, namely taxes on dividends and capital gains, in a setting with incomplete markets and heterogeneity at both the household and the firm level. The reform yields distributional gains with a large majority of households benefiting. Moreover, if dividend and capital gains are taxed at the same rate, the reform is also efficiency-enhancing and the implied optimal corporate income tax rate is zero. In contrast, an asymmetric tax treatment of dividend and capital gains induces a trade-off between efficiency and distributional concerns that is optimally resolved at a positive optimal corporate tax rate, implying double taxation. Copyright © 2022 The Authors.Öğe Informality and structural transformation(CENTRAL BANK REPUBLIC TURKEY, 2017-12) Ateşağaoğlu, Orhan Erem; Bayram, Deniz; Elgin, CeyhunIn this paper, we investigate the evolution of the informal sector through structural transformation. We develop both a three-sector and a five-sector dynamic general equilibrium (DGE) model, which can simultaneously account for structural transformation between agriculture, industry and services, and between the informal and formal sectors. First, we incorporate the informal sector into an otherwise two-sector (agriculture and non agriculture) DGE model. Then, we augment this model and build a five-sector DGE model extending the non-agricultural sector into industry and services, to separately account for the evolution of informality in these two sectors. The calibrated model performs remarkably well in accounting for the evolution of the sectoral employment shares and the size of the informal sector. Finally, we use panel data econometric tools to investigate the empirical relationship between structural transformation and the informal sector and find a strong negative relationship between the size of non-agricultural sector and informality.Öğe Taxes, financial markets and the great moderation(Bogazici Universitesi, 2017) Ateşağaoğlu, Orhan EremRecent studies have shown that there was a noticeable decline in the US corporate sector business cycle volatility from roughly the mid-1980s until the start of the recent financial crisis in 2007. This fact came to be known as the Great Moderation. During the same period, tax rates on US corporate distributions fell roughly from 43% to 17% as a result of the changes in the US income tax system that took place in early 1980s. Motivated by these, we investigate the effects of dividend tax cuts on macroeconomic volatility. We develop a model in which firms finance investment through external equity and internal funds, and face costs of reducing labor input. Dividend taxes reduce the amount of external equity that new firms raise, so they start small and grow over time by using internal funds to a greater extent. Such financially constrained firms respond more to the business cycle shocks since they are affected less from labor reduction costs because of their growing labor demand on their life cycle. Contrarily, old and large firms respond less to business cycle shocks since they completed their growth process, therefore are affected more from labor reduction costs. Lower dividend taxes induce firms to issue more external equity and become financially unconstrained in a shorter amount of time, so there are fewer small, volatile firms, and therefore lower volatility in macroeconomic indicators.Öğe TFP growth in Turkey revisited: The effect of informal sector(ELSEVIER, 2017-03) Ateşağaoğlu, Orhan Erem; Ceyhun, Elgin; Öztunalı, CeyhunIn this paper, we aim to contribute to the growth literature by presenting evidence that the presence of an informal sector might significantly affect both the level as well as the course of the total factor productivity (TFP). To this end, we develop a framework where we can compare the TFP in Turkey generated by a one-sector benchmark model to the one originating from an extended model with the presence of formal and informal labor. Our results indicate that, over the course of 1950-2014, the TFP generated by the benchmark model generally underestimates the productivity of the formal sector and this underestimation is mainly observed and is widened after 1980. Moreover, we also find that the substitution between formal and informal labor significantly affects this underestimation.
