Identifying Turkish business cycle regimes in real time
| dc.contributor.author | Soybilgen, Baris | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2024-07-18T20:45:13Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2024-07-18T20:45:13Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2020 | |
| dc.department | İstanbul Bilgi Üniversitesi | en_US |
| dc.description.abstract | In this study, we analyse the real-time identification performance of the BBQ method and the Markov switching (MS) model in the case of Turkey by comparing their real-time and ex-post identification results between 1997M01-2017M12. We show that both the BBQ and the MS methodologies identify the nearly same turning point dates for the Turkish economy both ex-post and in real time by using a pseudo real-time data set. We also calculate the real-time identification lag of models and show that the MS model and the BBQ method identify a turning point with a 3-4 months lag and a 6 months lag, respectively. Finally, we show that data revisions do not have a significant impact on the real-time identification performance of the models between 2005M01-2017M12. | en_US |
| dc.identifier.doi | 10.1080/13504851.2019.1607243 | |
| dc.identifier.endpage | 66 | en_US |
| dc.identifier.issn | 1350-4851 | |
| dc.identifier.issn | 1466-4291 | |
| dc.identifier.issue | 1 | en_US |
| dc.identifier.scopus | 2-s2.0-85065057218 | en_US |
| dc.identifier.scopusquality | Q2 | en_US |
| dc.identifier.startpage | 62 | en_US |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2019.1607243 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://hdl.handle.net/11411/7460 | |
| dc.identifier.volume | 27 | en_US |
| dc.identifier.wos | WOS:000471536200001 | en_US |
| dc.identifier.wosquality | Q4 | en_US |
| dc.indekslendigikaynak | Web of Science | en_US |
| dc.indekslendigikaynak | Scopus | en_US |
| dc.language.iso | en | en_US |
| dc.publisher | Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd | en_US |
| dc.relation.ispartof | Applied Economics Letters | en_US |
| dc.relation.publicationcategory | Makale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanı | en_US |
| dc.rights | info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess | en_US |
| dc.subject | Business Cycles | en_US |
| dc.subject | Turning Points | en_US |
| dc.subject | Markov Switching | en_US |
| dc.subject | Bbq | en_US |
| dc.subject | Turkey | en_US |
| dc.subject | Series | en_US |
| dc.title | Identifying Turkish business cycle regimes in real time | |
| dc.type | Article |
