PARTY PREFERENCES AND ECONOMIC VOTING IN TURKEY (NOW THAT THE CRISIS IS OVER)

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to re-examine the factors that shape party preferences in Turkey by estimating an individual vote intention function. The economic variables in the empirical model are items that can be used to test the conventional 'economic voting' hypotheses, i.e. whether individuals' economic evaluations about the past or the near future affect their party choice. In an earlier article, based on data from 2002, evidence was found in favour of these hypotheses. Those who had been affected adversely by the economic crisis of 2001 were found to be very unlikely to vote for the incumbent parties of the time. In the present article, we focus on comparing the characteristics of the intended voters of the currently ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) with those of other parties. According to multinomial logit estimates, those who make the more optimistic evaluations about the state of the economy are more likely to vote for the AKP. There is also an obvious increase in the number of AKP voters who support Turkey's European Union membership.