Project risk evaluation using a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process: An application to information technology projects

Abstract

Projects are critical to the realization of performing organization's strategies. Each project contains some degree of risk and it is required to be aware of these risks and to develop the necessary responses to get the desired level of project success. Because projects' risks are multidimensional, they must be evaluated by using multi-attribute decision-making methods. The aim of this article is to provide an analytic tool to evaluate the project risks under incomplete and vague information. The fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP) as a suitable and practical way of evaluating project risks based on the heuristic knowledge of experts is used to evaluate the riskiness of an information technology (IT) project of a Turkish firm. The means of the triangular fuzzy numbers produced by the IT experts for each comparison are successfully used in the pairwise comparison matrices. (c) 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.