Nowcasting Turkish Food Inflation Using Daily Online Prices

Basit Öğe Kaydı
dc.authorscopusid57190881040
dc.authorscopusid15125307700
dc.authorscopusid36151016600
dc.contributor.authorSoybilgen, B.
dc.contributor.authorYazgan, M.E.
dc.contributor.authorKaya, H.
dc.date.accessioned2024-07-18T20:16:49Z
dc.date.available2024-07-18T20:16:49Z
dc.date.issued2023
dc.description.abstractThis study uses a sample of daily food prices scraped from retail chains’ websites for the period from July 2018 to December 2020, comprising over 5.9 million data points. Using these food prices, we construct 132 food price subindexes compatible with official data published by the Turkish Statistical Institute (Turkstat), which are published only once a month. We then use the online food price subindexes to calculate the primary food inflation rate. We find that changes in our online food price index and the Turkstat data are closely related. The daily online food price index is then used to nowcast official food and headline inflation. Our results show that the online index successfully nowcasts the official inflation rates, providing results considerably earlier than the official rate is announced. We also observe that the implementation of the first coronavirus restrictions in Turkey in early 2020 caused online food prices to jump, whereas official food prices did not experience the same spike. © 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipThis research has not been supported by any grants.en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s41549-023-00084-2
dc.identifier.endpage190en_US
dc.identifier.issn2509-7962
dc.identifier.issue2en_US
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85164169357en_US
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ3en_US
dc.identifier.startpage171en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1007/s41549-023-00084-2
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/11411/6280
dc.identifier.volume19en_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopusen_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherSpringer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbHen_US
dc.relation.ispartofJournal of Business Cycle Researchen_US
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanıen_US
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccessen_US
dc.subjectConsumer Price Indexen_US
dc.subjectExchange Rateen_US
dc.subjectFood Price Indexen_US
dc.subjectForecastingen_US
dc.subjectNowcastingen_US
dc.titleNowcasting Turkish Food Inflation Using Daily Online Pricesen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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