An evaluation of inflation expectations in Turkey

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dc.WoS.categoriesEconomicsen_US
dc.authorid0000-0003-4906-1878en_US
dc.authorid0000-0003-1412-4488en_US
dc.contributor.authorSoybilgen, Barış
dc.contributor.authorYazgan, Ege
dc.date.accessioned2021-03-02T13:29:46Z
dc.date.available2021-03-02T13:29:46Z
dc.date.issued2017-03
dc.description.abstractExpectations of inflation play a critical role in the process of price setting in the market. Central banks closely follow developments in inflation expectations to implement a successful monetary policy. The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) conducts a survey of experts and decision makers in the financial and real sectors to reveal market expectations and predictions of current and future inflation. The survey is conducted every month. This paper examines the accuracy of these survey predictions using forecast evaluation techniques. We focus on both point and sign accuracy of the predictions. Although point predictions from CBRT surveys are compared with those of autoregressive models, sign predictions are evaluated on their value to a user. We also test the predictions for bias. Unlike the empirical evidence from other economies, our results show that autoregressive models outperform most of inflation expectations in forecasting inflation. This indicates that inflation expectations have poor point forecast accuracies. However, we show that sign predictions for all inflation expectations have value to a user.en_US
dc.fullTextLevelFull Texten_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.cbrev.2017.01.001en_US
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85045679483en_US
dc.identifier.trdizinid220704en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/11411/3329
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.cbrev.2017.01.001
dc.identifier.urihttps://search.trdizin.gov.tr/yayin/detay/220704en_US
dc.identifier.wosWOS:000402747900004en_US
dc.identifier.wosqualityN/Aen_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Scienceen_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopusen_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakTR-Dizinen_US
dc.issue1en_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.nationalInternationalen_US
dc.numberofauthors2en_US
dc.pages31-38en_US
dc.publisherELSEVIERen_US
dc.relation.ispartofCENTRAL BANK REVIEWen_US
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanıen_US
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessen_US
dc.subjectInflation expectationsen_US
dc.subjectEvaluation proceduresen_US
dc.subjectSign forecast accuracyen_US
dc.titleAn evaluation of inflation expectations in Turkeyen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.volume17en_US

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