CPT-Based Probabilistic Assessment of Seismic Soil Liquefaction Triggering Relationships

Abstract

Within the confines of this manuscript, updated CPT-based liquefaction triggering relationships are introduced. In the literature, there exist a number of CPT-based liquefaction triggering case histories, on the basis of which triggering relationships were developed. In this study, the prior database of Moss et al. is revisited and extended with additional case histories compiled from relatively recent events of 2001 Nisqually-Seattle, 2003 San Simeon, 2003 Bachu, 2008 Achaia-Elia, 2009 Padang, 2010 Jiasian, 2011 Tohoku, 2010 El Mayor Cucapah, 2010–2011 New Zealand-Canterbury, 2012 Emilia-Romagna, 2020 Samos-Aegean Sea, and 2023 Kahramanmaras earthquakes. The updated database, along with a discussion on the probabilistic case history processing methodology, is discussed. An illustrative case history is presented, along with a discussion on the probabilistic data procession scheme. After complying with the entire database, it is processed to develop improved CPT-based correlations for predicting the initiation of soil liquefaction during earthquakes; then, the database is evaluated by overall uncertainty using higher-order regression tools, with parameters represented by the mean and standard deviation. Maximum likelihood assessment is employed as the probabilistic framework for developing liquefaction triggering boundary curves and relationships. The resulting relationships provide an enhanced understanding of the effects of fines content, overburden stress, the geological and depositional setting on observed surface manifestations, and the presence of a crust layer. Finally, the updated model is compared with existing CPT-based seismic soil liquefaction triggering models in the literature. © ASCE.