Observations on Turkey's Recent Economic Performance

Abstract

We establish that the Turkish economy underwent a remarkable transformation during the last decade. We identify the underpinnings of this successful transformation as well as the inadequate policies that enabled vulnerabilities to accumulate. Despite improvement in the economic fundamentals, volatility and dependence on external finance not only persisted, but actually increased during the last decade. We discuss the structural causes of the widening external deficit. Finally, we evaluate Turkey's outstanding economic performance in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and the recent soft landing and rebalancing episode.