Yilmazkuday, HakanAkay, Koray2024-07-182024-07-1820080264-99931873-6122https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2007.11.013https://hdl.handle.net/11411/7333We use a time-varying dynamic factor model with regime switching to construct and estimate the leading indicators of the currency crises in Turkey. After that, we analyze the business cycles of the Turkish economy, by using a three-state univariate Markov-switching model. Both models capture the observed dynamics of the Turkish economy over the period 1987-2002. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.eninfo:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccessCurrency CrisisMarkov-SwitchingTime-Varying ParameterThree-State ModelTurkeyLikelihood Ratio TestExchange-RatesMarkovSeriesArticle2-s2.0-4734908915510.1016/j.econmod.2007.11.0138985Q188525Q4WOS:000258805900007